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And I'll reiterate for one last time the fundamental issue I have with that chart. I am not arguing the accuracy of any one of those numbers taken in isolation ... what I am saying is that the specific data sets that were chosen, and the way those numbers were related to each other, produced a graphic that was dishonest and very misleading, pretty clearly by design. Much of that has already been pretty thoroughly discussed here, but I'll add a couple of additional points.

The most important one for me is that the state-by-state comparison doesn't take into account that different parts of the country are at different points in the overall Covid trajectory, and the ratios among the percentages shown are absolutely going to change before this is all over. Even more importantly, all of those numbers are certainly going to continue to grow -- but it's in our nature not to keep that in mind when we look at lists of percentiles, and so the subliminal effect at this point is to downplay the significance of the pandemic.

As with the SFGate article that derided the chart, I question the decision to list percentages based on the state's overall population, which was also likely done to downplay the significance of the numbers. Perhaps a more telling statistic would be to illustrate the number of Covid deaths as a percentage of the total number of premature deaths in a state -- that would be a lot more illustrative, but of course even that won't be fully relevant until the pandemic is over and we we see other than fractional numbers.

Finally, it troubles me that this and many other tabulations only use the number of mortalities when trying to gauge the impact of the pandemic. Even with the limited information we have to date, it's becoming pretty clear that the virus can damage its victims in a variety of other ways, and that the damage has the potential to be severe and long-lasting ... so the crisis is bigger than what looking only at mortality tables would suggest. But again, as with the rest of this, there is a lot that the scientists need to research and observe before we can make conclusions using a fully solid footing. So much of what we have for now is just punditry.
 

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And I'll reiterate for one last time the fundamental issue I have with that chart. I am not arguing the accuracy of any one of those numbers taken in isolation ... what I am saying is that the specific data sets that were chosen, and the way those numbers were related to each other, produced a graphic that was dishonest and very misleading, pretty clearly by design. Much of that has already been pretty thoroughly discussed here, but I'll add a couple of additional points.

The most important one for me is that the state-by-state comparison doesn't take into account that different parts of the country are at different points in the overall Covid trajectory, and the ratios among the percentages shown are absolutely going to change before this is all over. Even more importantly, all of those numbers are certainly going to continue to grow -- it's in our nature not to keep that in mind when we look at lists of percentiles, and so the subliminal effect at this point is to downplay the significance of the pandemic.

As with the SFGate article that derided the chart, I question the decision to list percentages based on the state's overall population, which was also likely done to downplay the significance of the numbers. Perhaps a more telling statistic would be to illustrate the number of Covid deaths as a percentage of the total number of premature deaths in a state -- that would be a lot more illustrative, but of course even that won't be fully relevant until the pandemic is over and we we see other than fractional numbers.

Finally, it troubles me that this and many other tabulations only use the number of mortalities when trying to gauge the impact of the pandemic. Even with the limited information we have to date, it's becoming pretty clear that the virus can damage its victims in a variety of other ways, and that the damage has the potential to be severe and long-lasting. But again, as with the rest of this, there is a lot that the scientists need to research and observe before we can make conclusions using a fully solid footing. So much of what we have for now is just punditry.
And that it's hard not to view it as a political statement...
 

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I just found out that one of our friends is moving to Dallas, so I looked at their stats. They have 203 deaths reported out of 2.6m so 78 per million, which is definitely a lot lower than here or Miami. However, there were 12 new ones reported there yesterday so 4.6 per million which just happens to be exactly the same rate as Los Angeles (46 new ones yesterday). Looking at a single day doesn't prove anything, of course, but it suggests Dallas is on a different part of the curve, as @Montanan alluded to. I also wonder if they are classifying all of the COVID-19 cases the same way.

Out of curiosity, I looked at some historical mortality rate data for Los Angeles County (which I used to get paid to do a while ago, LOL). The overall annual mortality rate in recent years seems to have been around 600 deaths per 100,000 population. I don't think using premature death rates for comparisons is a good idea because that's usually based on an arbitrary age cutoff (LA uses 75 years old). So, if you're 74 and you die of complications due to the flu that's a "premature death" but if you're 75, then it's not.

The typical death rate for all causes of death (i.e. 50 per month per 100K) compared to what we're seeing reported now, just for COVID-19 (i.e. over 20 per 100K in a couple of months) is pretty significant, and much more meaningful and relevant than basing it on total population.
 

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I haven't been out much for obvious reasons, but I don't really feel that people in the DFW area are very concerned, when I feel they really still should be. Went for a drive in Arlington (mid-way between Dallas and Fort Worth) the other evening and saw lots of people in the parks with no masks and no social distancing being observed. Not sure if that's normal across the country, or if it's more due to that "Everything's better in Texas" attitude that seems to me to be so prevalent. There's also a business first attitude that probably drove the decision to open everything up earlier than it should have been (all of this is in my opinion, of course).

For the record, I didn't grow up here (from Pennsylvania originally) but I have lived here for 20 years now.
 

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I haven't been out much for obvious reasons, but I don't really feel that people in the DFW area are very concerned, when I feel they really still should be. Went for a drive in Arlington (mid-way between Dallas and Fort Worth) the other evening and saw lots of people in the parks with no masks and no social distancing being observed. Not sure if that's normal across the country, or if it's more due to that "Everything's better in Texas" attitude that seems to me to be so prevalent. There's also a business first attitude that probably drove the decision to open everything up earlier than it should have been (all of this is in my opinion, of course).

For the record, I didn't grow up here (from Pennsylvania originally) but I have lived here for 20 years now.
I've been seeing that around here, too. The beaches were opened up for active recreation only (no sunbathing, no picnics, no groups) and masks are mandated but loads of people are gathering on the beaches, in groups, without masks, and it's predicted to be worse this holiday weekend with a heatwave on the way.
 

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Just saw an article from the Washington Post that seems relevant here - it includes this quote:

"The Imperial College researchers estimated the virus’s reproduction number, known as R0, or R naught. This is the average number of infections generated by each infected person in a vulnerable population. The researchers found the reproduction number has dropped below 1 in the District and 26 states. In those places, as of May 17, the epidemic was waning.
In 24 states, however, the model shows a reproduction number over 1. Texas tops the list, followed by Arizona, Illinois, Colorado, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa, Alabama and Wisconsin."
 

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Wow, I read the WP every day and missed that one about Texas topping the list, LOL. Los Angeles just got down to an R number under 1 which was a milestone (a rare good one), meaning that cases should not continue to increase exponentially. Of course, that will probably change after this holiday weekend...
 

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Finally, it troubles me that this and many other tabulations only use the number of mortalities when trying to gauge the impact of the pandemic. Even with the limited information we have to date, it's becoming pretty clear that the virus can damage its victims in a variety of other ways, and that the damage has the potential to be severe and long-lasting ... so the crisis is bigger than what looking only at mortality tables would suggest. But again, as with the rest of this, there is a lot that the scientists need to research and observe before we can make conclusions using a fully solid footing. So much of what we have for now is just punditry.
One thing though is that 80% of the deaths are in those over 65 and the majority of deaths of all people are in nursing homes. In PA its 70% . So it is only logical that there would be more "permanent damage" in those folks. Also they figure that there are at least 15 times the number cases diagnosed. Which means 90% or so (guess) healthy people don't know they even had it.

I am not minimizing this. But if the states would have first looked at protecting people they should have looked at the elderly and the old. In Pa which has 26K deaths I recall there were like 20K death sand not one person under the age of 45 died. I will have to check that info. But let that sink in. So ultimately the mortality rate sill be about the same as the flu. But the thing spreads like wildfire and had the potential to overload hospitals. But it only happened in NY bc they were grossly negligent with nursing homes.

Now I am 74 and 2 months ago I had a whole body rash for 3 weeks. Never had a rash in my life. My daughter said the rash is a sign that your immune system is kicking in big time. (She is a Nurse Practitioner) As I was getting rid of it I got a fever for a couple days and upset stomach. It is highly likely I had it.
 

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So ultimately the mortality rate sill be about the same as the flu.
From earlier in this thread:

The typical death rate for all causes of death (i.e. 50 per month per 100K) compared to what we're seeing reported now, just for COVID-19 (i.e. over 20 per 100K in a couple of months) is pretty significant, and much more meaningful and relevant than basing it on total population.
During the last regular flu season, 125 people in LA County died of the flu, with bars and restaurants open, no masks or social distancing, etc. I think we hit that in the first week of the outbreak here. That's what's got a lot people around here scared...
 

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We will see what happens as we "reopen". What we know about this virus is that it spreads like wildfire in a captive environment. What bothers me is what we don't know, which apparently is more than what we do. It's going to go the way it will go now, but how will it interact in the fall when flu season hits. The mortality rate for this virus is something like .2-.8%. What would it be if people get both?

artosa
 

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We will see what happens as we "reopen". What we know about this virus is that it spreads like wildfire in a captive environment. What bothers me is what we don't know, which apparently is more than what we do. It's going to go the way it will go now, but how will it interact in the fall when flu season hits. The mortality rate for this virus is something like .2-.8%. What would it be if people get both?

artosa
Yep, they're learning more all the time and the big factor seems to be close contact with other people. I just read about the salon in Missouri that opened up and a second stylist has tested positive, and 140 clients have been exposed. I wonder how many of those people will die, for a haircut? This ain't seasonal flu...
 

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Take it to the bank there will be a vaccine widely available by Oct. And one or two more by the end of the year.
 

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Take it to the bank there will be a vaccine widely available by Oct. And one or two more by the end of the year.
I've read about some promising but very limited trials. Where are you seeing that?

Edit: I should qualify that - are you seeing any studies that are having some success and can manufacture hundreds of millions of shots in a few months? 😸
 

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This is an all hands on like the Manhattan Project. I have zero doubt.
But
"Now the most valuable company on Britain's blue-chip FTSE 100 Index, it has already agreed to deliver 100 million doses to people in Britain, with 30 million as soon as September. Ministers have promised Britain will get first access to the vaccine. "

Now that is just one vaccine. And the U.S. invested 1.2 Billion in this. So by Oct the U.S. should have enough for everyone. Other countries have agreed to produce it. There are a couple other vaccines in the U.S that have started at least Phase I testing. Folks are underestimation what is going to occur. I wouldbet serious $$$$ on it working. Production on all of them will begin even bofore they are proved sucessful.

These days a billion $$ is chump change. If this fails..Trump fails.
 

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This is an all hands on like the Manhattan Project. I have zero doubt.
But
"Now the most valuable company on Britain's blue-chip FTSE 100 Index, it has already agreed to deliver 100 million doses to people in Britain, with 30 million as soon as September. Ministers have promised Britain will get first access to the vaccine. "

Now that is just one vaccine. And the U.S. invested 1.2 Billion in this. So by Oct the U.S. should have enough for everyone. Other countries have agreed to produce it. There are a couple other vaccines in the U.S that have started at least Phase I testing. Folks are underestimation what is going to occur. I wouldbet serious $$$$ on it working. Production on all of them will begin even bofore they are proved sucessful.

These days a billion $$ is chump change. If this fails..Trump fails.
This is also from what I think is the article you cited:

"This contract with AstraZeneca is a major milestone in Operation Warp Speed’s work toward a safe, effective, widely available vaccine by 2021,” U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar said. The first doses could be available in the United States as early as October, according to a statement from HHS."

So, hopefully, first doses by October but not widely available, and that's if it works. I don't want to rain on your parade but I think it's more likely we'll see a few promising candidates being touted, just in time for the election, not a widely available effective vaccine. Politics aside, I hope I'm wrong...

Some good news in the LA Times this morning:

"The county has seen a 13% decrease in its latest seven-day average of deaths per day and a 16% decrease in its most recent three-day average of hospitalizations per day, according to a Department of Health dashboard that tracks metrics related to recovery. "

I hope they can maintain this with the county beginning to open up.
 

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I don't want to rain on your parade but I think it's more likely we'll see a few promising candidates being touted, just in time for the election, not a widely available effective vaccine. Politics aside, I hope I'm wrong...
If I am wrong even I won't vote for him. But I won't be wrong. . I have read too much about what can be done like in WWII. Lets wait and see. :)

Also, the country won't be open till we start vaccinating. The future of the nation is at stake.
 

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So why did CA allow people to go to some beaches and exercise, but not touch the dry sand (ie lay on the beach)? What data do their doctors/scientists use to make that decision?
Yes some of our restrictions in NSW are lifting but the earlier rules here seemed very arbitrary and even counter intuitive. For eg; horse racing was allowed to continue and you could attend bootcamp exercise sessions with a group of no more than 10 people but golf courses were closed. Other than essential workers, people self isolated and/or worked from home. We could go outside to exercise with one other as long as we kept moving and practised social distancing. For those in the more densly populated beachside areas, the beach was the nearest place to exercise/allay boredom and became as busy/busier than weekends. To maintain social distancing, police were moving people on if they were sitting around, stopping to chat in groups or sun baking. Ultimately the beaches had to close.
From my current perspective I think things (around where I live at least) will get back to "normal" very quickly unless we get a second wave. With the easing of restrictions people are already forgetting about social distancing and hygiene. 🐨
 

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Yes some of our restrictions in NSW are lifting but the earlier rules here seemed very arbitrary and even counter intuitive. For eg; horse racing was allowed to continue and you could attend bootcamp exercise sessions with a group of no more than 10 people but golf courses were closed. Other than essential workers, people self isolated and/or worked from home. We could go outside to exercise with one other as long as we kept moving and practised social distancing. For those in the more densly populated beachside areas, the beach was the nearest place to exercise/allay boredom and became as busy/busier than weekends. To maintain social distancing, police were moving people on if they were sitting around, stopping to chat in groups or sun baking. Ultimately the beaches had to close.
From my current perspective I think things (around where I live at least) will get back to "normal" very quickly unless we get a second wave. With the easing of restrictions people are already forgetting about social distancing and hygiene. 🐨
From what I've seen around here, the rules have changed based on the situation on the ground. Beeaches and trails were open but there was overcrowding and vast numbers of people not following whatever rules and orders were in place, so they were closed. And it's happening again as things are slowly reopening. I've been shocked at some of the pictures I've seen of the partying going on over Memorial Day weekend! And it will take at least two weeks to see the effect of that on infections.

Around here, there is a county-wide order to wear a mask when out in public and maintain social distancing. Fewer than half of the people I've seen out and about here are complying.
 
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