Subaru XV Crosstrek Forums banner

41 - 60 of 92 Posts

Registered
'18 and '19 Crosstrek Limiteds
Joined
8,161 Posts
They like it when the popcorn comes out...haha.
It has certainly been very civil so far. Let's keep it that way, as it's an interesting discussion... 馃樃
 

Registered
2018 Orange Subaru Crosstrek Limited
Joined
372 Posts
Thanks, what you say is true about opinions. I'm glad you are offering this evidence as it helps us all get beyond just jawboning the issue. I know you agree that the disease is real and are trying to raise important issues that go along with it. My son-in-law is having great difficulty keeping his restaurant open. His oldest is about to go to a very expensive college and he is (as you and I are) rightfully worried about the future. If we go back to work, open the state, it is important that we have a methodology that makes us feel we are doing the right thing for our families. My son-in-law feels that the evidence given so far is that is kids and family are safer with a gradual opening of the economy but it will be very hard economically for everyone. Economics are real thing and you are right to remind us of this. I know that you are equally aware of the fact that massive numbers of families are grieving from the loss of their loved ones due to the virus.

When we show things like data, table, graphs, I think we are asking a question similar to: "Are we looking at an important summation that gives us a broader/clearer picture due to this analysis." Frequency, trends, etc. That's what we are hoping for in sorting and analyzing data. I'm including an imaginary example I might use with my students to compare it with one from your table, the first line is about an IMAGINARY problem with a Subaru. I am not trying to start nonsense rumors as there are plenty to go around lately:

1. A 2019 WRX model crashes and NHTSA says the crash was directly caused by a casting crack in it's brake master cylinder (BMC). If all WRX models of Subaru had the possibility of complete brake failure due to a unique WRX part then I might be interested in the frequency of the problem. Sum up Research Question: Total Numbers of 2019 WRX Models/Brake Master Cylinder Failure (BMC)
1. We are facing a pandemic caused by the Covid 19 virus and it has a potential specific outcome of death. Folks who have Covid 19 then develop an entirely new path to death that they did not have if they are not carrying the virus. I am interested in the frequency of the problem. Sum up Research Question: Covid 19 Virus/Death

2. Subaru quality control discovers the error as a casting crack in the brake master cylinder that might cause complete, unexpected brake failure. Computer memory shows that the event happened 100 times among all WRXs produced. Each casting is identified and traced to an individual car. Identified cars are in a population of cars that have bad master brake cylinders.
Sum up Research Question: WRX/All WRX with bad BMC.
2. Covid 19 is being measured in Florida by giving folks a test. A given number of folks test positive and a number of outcomes are possible. It is potentially a deadly disease to those who test positive. Positive tested folks are in a population that are impacted by the virus. Sum up Research Question; Florida Covid 19 Virus Infected /Number of Positive Covid 19 Cases in Florida that die

3. Subaru is asked "What evidence do you have of the percentage of vehicles that have bad master brake cylinders?" Sum up Research Question: Vehciles/Vehicles with bad master cylinder
3. What evidence do we have of the percentage of folks who contract the disease are in danger of dying in Florida?" Sum up Research Question: Florida Covid 19 Virus Folks/ Exact number who die from this event.

4. Subaru takes the number of bad master cylinder castings and divides it by the entire run of all Subarus sold in America. 100 divided by approx 680,000 2019 vehicles in the USA or 0.00014706%

Subaru answers this question: "Percent of 680,000 vehicles Subaru makes divided into 100 bad MBCs. "

4. Florida takes the numbers of total people who happen to live in the state and divides that into the number of deaths of folks who tested positive for Covid 19. 0.0081%

Florida answers the following question: "What percentage of folks die from Covid 19 when the population of interest includes an additional set of millions of people who are not infected."


I would argue with my students that the number Subaru offers in this particular imaginary example, while accurate, is not useful and massively reduces the utility of the conclusion. I would argue that since we know the Master Brake Cylinder problem is unique to a small sample of the population of Subaru models made in 2019 the additional data is not helpful in understanding outcomes. We are close to the research question at number 2, WRX Models are the concern as that is the only phenomena we are interested in at this point in the argument. There are only approx 22,000 WRX models made in 2019. Adding the 668,000 additional models to the frequency is unfair and misleading as it changes the question to what percent of all Subaru models have a bad master cylinder. This is a valid research question, but not the point of our initial inquiry. I would argue that if the intention is to inform you of the danger of brake failure of WRX models it is wrong to add the additional vehicles although, again, it is a real number. I would also ask students to come to their own conclusions as to why Subaru would do this in this imaginary example.

This is the same argument I would use for the table you offered.

I foolishly missed reading a bit of your part of this discussion. Am I correct that you got the table from a source at SF Gate? Could you give me more information? Thanks. I'll be more careful in reading your posts in the future.

Whew. At least I hopes this explains where I'm coming from. I'm going to wash the stupid car now because all you Subaru people keep showing how beautiful your cars are kept and now I feel guilty,but should I wear a mask? Inquiring minds need to know.
 

Registered
'18 and '19 Crosstrek Limiteds
Joined
8,161 Posts
4. Florida takes the numbers of total people who happen to live in the state and divides that into the number of deaths of folks who tested positive for Covid 19. 0.0081%

Florida answers the following question: "What percentage of folks die from Covid 19 when the population of interest includes an additional set of millions of people who are not infected."
I'm going to [rarely, and tentatively, LOL] agree with @R P here that the 0.0081% is a more useful stat, as long as everyone is comparing apples with apples, because of the different levels of testing. I don't think the rate based on positive cases is meaningful because we now know there are lots of people who caught it, didn't have symptoms, and never got tested. In fact, an antibody study that Los Angeles just completed found that the infection rate was way higher than the positive test rate.

I find the mortality rate for a given population to be a much more useful metric to see if what we're doing in a given community is working or not. A while ago, some states were boasting about how few cases they had compared to say New York but were not comparing it to their much smaller populations.

While I agree that the chart appears to be politically-motivated and flawed, I am curious about the underlying data. I went looking for medical examiner info, as it's a field I was once involved in (I visited the Miami-Dade Medical Examiner a while back) and found this:


The claim is similar to others, that they were suppressing data. Not saying who's right or wrong here but if the Los County Medical Examiner's Office is using different criteria to identify a COVID-19 related death, that could explain the disparity.
 

Registered
Vancouver, BC, Canada CGK 2018 Ltd EyeSight
Joined
2,203 Posts
Discussion Starter #44
Yes, I first saw this table in SFGate. But the numbers (cases and deaths) are as published in Worldometer.com This is the best source we have right now for this data as supplied by the all the countries/states health authorities. My purpose of showing this data was simply to compare/contrast the death rates (mortality rate is a better description actually) as it is accurate for a point in time. And it shows some of the different approaches (eg openings). It doesn't show the actual death rate of of the disease. No one knows that right now until it is all over. And a lot of other factors would affect that, like how good their care was in nursing home.

But a lot is not always what it seems...
 

Registered
Vancouver, BC, Canada CGK 2018 Ltd EyeSight
Joined
2,203 Posts
Discussion Starter #45
The claim is similar to others, that they were suppressing data. Not saying who's right or wrong here but if the Los County Medical Examiner's Office is using different criteria to identify a COVID-19 related death, that could explain the disparity.
Yeah, there is a lot of debate like this, both ways, to higher or lower actual deaths due to CV. Not sure if it is worth splitting hairs over, though. Got to get out of the weeds sometimes, and take that 10,000 ft view.
 

Registered
Vancouver, BC, Canada CGK 2018 Ltd EyeSight
Joined
2,203 Posts
Discussion Starter #46
It has certainly been very civil so far. Let's keep it that way, as it's an interesting discussion... 馃樃
Yeah, helps if we keep in mind "Candour without malice". Reminds me of drinks/dinners we would get together with same group of friends every couple weeks (before the CV). Of course everyone was not of the same political persuasion. Needless to say, we had some good fun sometimes, and the wives would retreat to another room when the tempo picked up. But we are all very good friends.
 

Registered
'18 and '19 Crosstrek Limiteds
Joined
8,161 Posts
Yeah, there is a lot of debate like this, both ways, to higher or lower actual deaths due to CV. Not sure if it is worth splitting hairs over, though. Got to get out of the weeds sometimes, and take that 10,000 ft view.
Here's an interesting stat - Miami-Dade, population 2.7 million, has had 602 deaths (i.e. 223 per million residents), compared to Los Angeles, population over 10 million, with 2016 deaths (i.e. 202 per million residents). That shoots down the myth that Florida is doing better, considering that Los Angeles is the current hotspot here in California.
 

Registered
Vancouver, BC, Canada CGK 2018 Ltd EyeSight
Joined
2,203 Posts
Discussion Starter #48
Here's an interesting stat - Miami-Dade, population 2.7 million, has had 602 deaths (i.e. 223 per million residents), compared to Los Angeles, population over 10 million, with 2016 deaths (i.e. 202 per million residents). That shoots down the myth that Florida is doing better, considering that Los Angeles is the current hotspot here in California.
When I do the math it works out the same for both cities, .02% mortality rate, both not good of course. But I would expect both states to have hot spots.
 

Registered
Vancouver, BC, Canada CGK 2018 Ltd EyeSight
Joined
2,203 Posts
Discussion Starter #49
When I do the math it works out the same for both cities, .02% mortality rate, both not good of course. But I would expect both states to have hot spots.
And BTW, I did not say FL was doing better. I said they were the same, despite their very different approaches. If you want to say who is better, compare TX with NY!!
 

Registered
2018 Orange Subaru Crosstrek Limited
Joined
372 Posts
When relatively small numbers of people die from Covid 19 in a state that loses about 200,000 (normally) a year then Covid 19 can be described accurately as a small part of the number if the sampling data is collected accurately. I think, if the table is accurate, it proves that. It just wasn't the question I was thinking of so it might be my fault for jumping to conclusions. I was thinking "How many souls are lost to this disease in Florida?" or "How bad is the virus?" I think if the table was identified simply as "How many people in Florida died of Covid?" or "Proof that Covid is a very small part of the death rate of Florida" then no problem.

I guess I'm trying to say that when dealing with smaller numbers it becomes easy to wash out the impact of those small numbers with larger ones. Would you disagree, if you read my "Subaru" example that the real question is "What are my odds of my WRX having that bad Brake Master Cylinder?" If you don't have a WRX in that example then the evidence presented says you have a "0" chance of having the bad master cylinder if you have any other model.

Ultimately if you don't have the virus then your chances of dying from the virus are "0" as well. That's a fact. When you look at CV deaths and add into them large numbers of people who will absolutely not die from Covid 19 (the 200,000 "natural" deaths) then you reduce the value of what you know although you can end up with a mathematically correct conclusion. Maybe, as you say, that is the best you can do with the data we have. I'll have to think about it. It was too darn hot to wash the car.

My first post was that I thought the overall method of testing for the virus and some of the later analysis had many problems that created data with lots of uncertainty and so a reduction of significance. I feel that pretty strongly. I'd like to see the source of the table because I taught my students, and I believe, if you don't know where the data is coming from and you don't know how it was compiled and manipulated you should probably move on. Wishing I was back in the classroom. I loved to hear the students work this stuff.
 

Registered
2017 Crosstrek Limited
Joined
1,210 Posts
Well one statistic is true, Subaru owners are a varied and interesting lot! (y)
 

Registered
'18 and '19 Crosstrek Limiteds
Joined
8,161 Posts
Well one statistic is true, Subaru owners are a varied and interesting lot! (y)
There you go again, jumping to conclusions without any verifiable data to back it up, sigh. Please provide the source of your data and some colorful charts! 馃樃
 

Registered
'18 and '19 Crosstrek Limiteds
Joined
8,161 Posts
And BTW, I did not say FL was doing better. I said they were the same, despite their very different approaches. If you want to say who is better, compare TX with NY!!
Correct but the implication, especially from that chart, is that Florida has a better approach than California. It would have been a better "experiment" if California had been locked down the entire time and Florida had not been. The reality is that it happened in different counties at different times (the Bay Area was the first here) and Florida only started opening up again a couple of weeks ago, about the same as the incubation time for the virus.
 

Registered
Vancouver, BC, Canada CGK 2018 Ltd EyeSight
Joined
2,203 Posts
Discussion Starter #54
Well one statistic is true, Subaru owners are a varied and interesting lot! (y)
Wouldn't it be boring if we were all of the same mind, and nothing to argue about? That's why I fight media, govts, (even forum mods), if they try and herd us into all thinking/believing the same thing. Heck, I'm the type of guy that will even take the opposite side (even if I don't believe it myself) just to get something going... And haha, do you guys really know which side I am on here with these discussions?...

But I feel bad for Jesse, how Montanan pushed her off the forum. I for one, valued her alternate views, even if I didn't agree with some of them (and I didn't hesitate to take her on either). It takes two to tangle, and not fair that only one side should be admonished. Needless to say, I am not a fan of Cancel Culture.
 

Registered
2018 Orange Subaru Crosstrek Limited
Joined
372 Posts
Ok. I get it. The table is valid if there are too many other variables in things like testing. I tried to be civil in my discussion but I don't think I was objective enough. If an apology is needed then I offer it. The table shows about as much as we can know given other variables.
 

Registered
'18 and '19 Crosstrek Limiteds
Joined
8,161 Posts
Heck, I'm the type of guy that will even take the opposite side (even if I don't believe it myself) just to get something going... And haha, do you guys really know which side I am on here with these discussions?...
I'm a How-To-Geek fan. This was in their daily newsletter today:

Did You Know?
Cunningham鈥檚 Law, named after the inventor of the wiki, Ward Cunningham, states that the best way to get the right answer on the Internet is not to ask a question, but to post the wrong answer.
 

Registered
Vancouver, BC, Canada CGK 2018 Ltd EyeSight
Joined
2,203 Posts
Discussion Starter #57
Correct but the implication, especially from that chart, is that Florida has a better approach than California. It would have been a better "experiment" if California had been locked down the entire time and Florida had not been. The reality is that it happened in different counties at different times (the Bay Area was the first here) and Florida only started opening up again a couple of weeks ago, about the same as the incubation time for the virus.
Just remember though, I started the thread with the "controversial" discussion of two very different approaches to managing the virus and opening up the economy. And that chart was just some data to illustrate those differences, and how the states were affected with mortality rates.
 

Registered
Vancouver, BC, Canada CGK 2018 Ltd EyeSight
Joined
2,203 Posts
Discussion Starter #58
Ok. I get it. The table is valid if there are too many other variables in things like testing. I tried to be civil in my discussion but I don't think I was objective enough. If an apology is needed then I offer it. The table shows about as much as we can know given other variables.
Hey, come on, nothing to apologize for. I never took exception to anything you said. Besides, you are from the Bay Area, where I made some good friends when I worked there.
 

Super Moderator
2013 XV Crosstrek, Tangerine Orange
Joined
3,499 Posts
But I feel bad for Jesse, how Montanan pushed her off the forum. I for one, valued her alternate views, even if I didn't agree with some of them (and I didn't hesitate to take her on either). It takes two to tangle, and not fair that only one side should be admonished. Needless to say, I am not a fan of Cancel Culture.
This points out one of the fundamental tenets of forum moderating: no matter how level the process is, people always like to feel aggrieved when their ally gets called out. And the corollary is true, too: they feel the moderation is too lax when the people who grate on them aren't called out. I received input from both of those perspectives on the thread in question, substantially more from the latter belief than the former.

And for the record, the author of the Jesse persona is still welcome to post -- but for the sake of keeping the forum the remarkably civil place that it generally is, they and others will continue to get called out for posts that violate the forum rules, particularly the rule barring personal comments or innuendo directed against other forum members. Like the one you just made here, for example. ;)
 

Registered
Vancouver, BC, Canada CGK 2018 Ltd EyeSight
Joined
2,203 Posts
Discussion Starter #60
This points out one of the fundamental tenets of forum moderating: no matter how level the process is, people always like to feel aggrieved when their ally gets called out. And the corollary is true, too: they feel the moderation is too lax when the people who grate on them aren't called out. I received input from both of those perspectives on the thread in question, substantially more from the latter belief than the former.

And for the record, the author of the Jesse persona is still welcome to post -- but for the sake of keeping the forum the remarkably civil place that it generally is, they and others will continue to get called out for posts that violate the forum rules, particularly the rule barring personal comments or innuendo directed against other forum members. Like the one you just made here, for example. ;)
Yes sir,... I must apologize for being so bad.
 
41 - 60 of 92 Posts
Top