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Discussion Starter #1
A number of threads have gone off topic discussing this subject, so obviously people here want to talk about it. So I opened a separate thread here in the Off Topic section. A little controversy is OK, but let's not let it get out of hand. So please don't attack someone because you disagree with their posts. Instead focus your rebuttal on the content, not the person.

Where I worked (retired now), "Candour without Malice" was strongly encouraged. Maybe we can practice that here.

So I'll start off with what I'm sure will be controversial, but I think worth considering for how we go forward with this virus. This guy is taking a lot of flak for what he is saying (and yeah, he might have his own motives).

 

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"Might" have his own motives?????

Anyhow, I'll leave this open for now ... but please be extremely cautious about what and how you post. If/when the topic begins circling the drain it will be closed without warning, and any "Plandemic"-style tinfoil-hat content will cause the thread to be deleted.
 

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The problem is that "herd immunity" is not a strategy if the only path towards it is, "let a bunch of people get infected, hope they don't die."

There is no effective treatment outside of symptomatic treatment while the virus runs its course, and people are having a terrifyingly wide array of responses to the disease. There are young, healthy people who get it and experience nothing outside of a light cough. There are young, healthy people who have it ravage their lungs and kill them or cause permanent damage.

Herd immunity is a strategy for diseases where you can either control the outcome of the disease through highly effective treatments, or provide a vaccine. Otherwise, it's not a strategy. It's literally equivalent to crossing your fingers or shrugging your shoulders.
 

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You trying to start another dumpster fire, @R P? 😸 <--- note the smiley face.

I think it's dangerous to promote the idea of "young and healthy" people getting together since so little is known yet about the virus. I just read this:


"Recent public health warnings about a severe and puzzling inflammatory syndrome linked to covid-19 have focused on children. But some doctors say they are also seeing the illness, similar to Kawasaki disease, in a few young adults. "
 

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Discussion Starter #5
First I want to be clear, I am not promoting herd immunity. Just saying that there are many others discussing it. I have my own misgivings about it. However, I have been watching the success or not of the states that are locked down vs the ones that have opened up. Here is an interesting comparison of NY, TX CA and FL. You can draw your own conclusions from that. Note the death rate of CA and FL which are almost identical despite very different approaches.
300015


And here where I live, we did not do a full shutdown. Non-essential businesses were allowed to continue as long as they observed the mitigation rules (social distancing, sanitizing, etc). And now our news cases and deaths are nearing zero. Our peak was near the end of March.
300016
 

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I am not a scientist but there is something more to this virus then meets the eye. There are SO MANY contradictory data points that you can make your head spin and just say as Arsenio Hall said "things that make you go hmmmmm". The scientist would tell you shut everything down until there is a vaccine, while some states and countries have taken a little more laid back approach and the number would support their laid back approach has been just fine.

There is also the data point that the data points are incorrect.

So to answer the question or my thoughts on Post Covid. Sadly I think the world will look and feel different. We will have less freedoms which are never good no matter what. I also feel the MAJOR issue will be inconsistency across EVERYTHING. Certain companies and states will force you to do A,B,C while others will say you have to do X,Y,Z.

It will take a new farmers almanac to navigate and just do the things we have always done. You will need a decoder ring just to go on vacation so you know all the new rules.

All in all it BLOWS donkey you know what.
 

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One good piece of news in the Los Angeles Times this morning is that the transmission rate here is now slightly under 1, due the social distancing rules:

300017


And other news outlets are reporting a study predicting a second wave in the south due to some states reopening too quickly. One of the difficulties in knowing what to do is the long incubation time of the virus, plus that there can be asymptomatic carriers. Taking someone's temperature before they enter a restaurant doesn't work in those cases.
 

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Here is an interesting comparison of NY, TX CA and FL.
I always knew that Texas had the lowest morality rate in the nation. 😉

But seriously, a chart with inaccurate, cherry-picked numbers that attempts to infer a correlation between income tax rates and viral transmission is the very definition of a political post, rather than a public health one. This thread is not going to end well.

For some background on that graphic, see
 

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Discussion Starter #9
I think there is no question that social distancing and the other mitigation rules work. That's what we did here, and seems like we are beating it back. At this time, there are no new community outbreaks (for a couple weeks now), only some new cases in previously contained situations (mostly nursing homes and prisons). Meanwhile opening more things like provincial parks, inside restaurant seating, personal services (incl gyms). Will see how it goes. Hospitalizations also now looking very good.
300019
 

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It's quite remarkable that you've had such a low death rate (149 out of a population of 5 million, from what I could find online). Here in Los Angeles County we're up to 1,913 out of a population of 10 million. How do you account for that?

I've been reading lately about viral load and its effect on the seriousness of cases. Maybe it's because we're more densely populated here and can potentially be exposed to more virus for longer?

I also wonder if there's a difference in reporting whether a case is COVID-related. If someone has a heart attack and they test positive, was it caused by the virus or would they have died anyway. Years ago I worked on a database conversion for the LA coroner. It's a pretty complicated process determining cause of death and can take weeks or months.
 

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I feel like there's not enough transparency in the reporting numbers. Reports that Florida suppressed info and then fired a project lead for wanting to publish the real numbers, for instance. And since Texas 'reopened' the numbers seem to be on an upward trend - but again, not sure where I can get data points that I actually trust to be accurate.

In the end, I'm an introvert that lives alone, and I can work from home - so my plan is to stay in and hunkered down for as long as possible and hope there's something left to do when I feel ready to venture out.
 

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It is my opinion that making rational and scientifically based decisions based on deliberately manipulated and politically tainted data is a mistake.

I believe that the testing and data gathered during this pandemic in this country have been altered to suit politicians and corporations. Here are a few reasons, there are many more.

1. Some of the data on testing in Georgia leading up to the opening of the state to business has now been exposed as being falsified to make opening appear a favorable option. This includes grossly mainpulated graphs showing declines:


2. Worse, in my mind, is that the CDC data is now contradicting the state data that we use to make decisions:


3. Some CDC officials have come forward to make me question the veracity of the data we see, blaming this on overt attempts to muzzle and control scientific data:


4. The question of how much "immunity" and even what "immunity" means in the case of Covid 19 is not fully understood. The question of "Herd" immunity is one that might even be inappropriate in a country where the idea of vaccination is being questions by some who do not believe in the scientific community. This WHO article begins to describe some of the problems.


I want my kids working again. I want my grand kids back in school and learning. I want my oldest to start college and see a bright future she well deserves. I would love to live long enough to see them all succeed.

It isn't a question of those "against" the economy. It is a question of making sure that all families are as safe as they deserve to be. I feel highly confident that some rich people who suggest immediate opening of facilities are not planning to subject their families to the result of such an opening. It will literally affect working people and the poor while the rich watch from safety.
 

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Discussion Starter #13 (Edited)
It's quite remarkable that you've had such a low death rate (149 out of a population of 5 million, from what I could find online). Here in Los Angeles County we're up to 1,913 out of a population of 10 million. How do you account for that?

I've been reading lately about viral load and its effect on the seriousness of cases. Maybe it's because we're more densely populated here and can potentially be exposed to more virus for longer?

I also wonder if there's a difference in reporting whether a case is COVID-related. If someone has a heart attack and they test positive, was it caused by the virus or would they have died anyway. Years ago I worked on a database conversion for the LA coroner. It's a pretty complicated process determining cause of death and can take weeks or months.
Yes, that is correct, 149 deaths as of yesterday. Ours started early here, same time as initial outbreaks in WA and CA. But I think the mitigation and travel restrictions started earlier here, too. When we left for our road trip down south, they were already talking about social distancing and shutting down all large gathering operations. By mid March all the ski hills were shut down (incl Whistler), and people were being quarantined (advisery at first then mandated) when they returned from travel (from anywhere). We were self isolated for 2 weeks.

The daily rates kept going up, but it peaked at the end of March, which makes sense based on the 14 day incubation period, and then started to drop. We had another little peak in mid April (which was a little concerning) when we had outbreaks in a couple meat plants, and the prisons. But looks like they were able to contain those with extensive contact tracing and testing.
 

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I've also read about there being different strains in different regions due to mutations. Maybe you guys got the "lite" version. During the last regular flu season, 125 people in LA County died of the flu, with bars and restaurants open, no masks or social distancing, etc. I think we hit that in the first week of the outbreak here. That's what's got a lot people around here scared...
 

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In the U.S. 80% of deaths occur in those older than 65. In my state of PA, 2/3 the deaths occur in nursing homes. 90%+ of deaths occur in those that have a serious medical condition. So essentially those that want to shelter can and those that don't want to can lead almost a normal life...face mask and social distancing. Again..yes its serious but to suspend the right to live a normal life is sad. Good discussion above though. Hopefully folks will make their points and not criticize others.

I am 74 but in great shape. I do what I want..law or no law. Again I put no one except me at risk. And yet June 2 we have elections where you are not required to wear a mask and can not social distance..go figure.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
If we want to follow BC, here is the govt website. The daily stats are updated at 5 PM every day.

I know that our mod didn't like the data chart I showed earlier. But in contrast I might say that our BC govt is left wing (coalition between NDP and Greens) and is one of the few provinces that did not have a total clamp down (did not shut down non-essential businesses). However, in eastern Canada, both Ontario and Quebec have right wing provincial govts, but they went for the full clamp down. Yet they have the worst records (cases and deaths per pop) in Canada.

My point is that this not about politics, but how you react and manage through this epidemic. I think our govt here in BC just did a much better job. BTW half our population (2.5M) is in the lower mainland where I live. And this is where the majority of cases happened. And yes, Vancouver city is quite densely populated as well, in a very small area downtown. I live in a suburb (45 min from downtown) and it is not densely populated. However, our nursing homes were as bad as Vancouver city (or worse).
 

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If we want to follow BC, here is the govt website. The daily stats are updated at 5 PM every day.

I know that our mod didn't like the data chart I showed earlier. But in contrast I might say that our BC govt is left wing (coalition between NDP and Greens) and is one of the few provinces that did not have a total clamp down (did not shut down non-essential businesses). However, in eastern Canada, both Ontario and Quebec have right wing provincial govts, but they went for the full clamp down. Yet they have the worst records (cases and deaths per pop) in Canada.

My point is that this not about politics, but how you react and manage through this epidemic. I think our govt here in BC just did a much better job. BTW half our population (2.5M) is in the lower mainland where I live. And this is where the majority of cases happened. And yes, Vancouver city is quite densely populated as well, in a very small area downtown. I live in a suburb (45 min from downtown) and it is not densely populated. However, our nursing homes were as bad as Vancouver city (or worse).
That would be an interesting comparison, comparing the mortality rate (or morality rate, LOL) of the city of Los Angeles versus Vancouver as there are less densely populated area of our county too. The city has had 958 deaths out of a population of 4 million.

Btw, OAK has an elderly aunt in Vanvouver. She's doing fine (not in a care home).
 

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Discussion Starter #18
That would be an interesting comparison, comparing the mortality rate (or morality rate, LOL) of the city of Los Angeles versus Vancouver as there are less densely populated area of our county too. The city has had 958 deaths out of a population of 4 million.

Btw, OAK has an elderly aunt in Vanvouver. She's doing fine (not in a care home).
I know we discussed this before and you disagreed. But I think another difference here is that we did not take the cookie cutter approach (like they did in Ontario and Quebec) and did not close down everything. Because we have very limited medical resources here, we took a very targeted approach with the outbreak areas with testing, contact tracing and isolated them. We had a few fires spring up (meat plants were scary), but they reacted very quickly with those and got them contained before it spread to the community.

What I found surprising, though, is there were no outbreaks in the homeless population. A whole bunch of them camped out in a downtown park, and for sure they were not social distancing. Why were they not affected? What about your homeless in CA? How are they faring?
 

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I know that our mod didn't like the data chart I showed earlier. But in contrast I might say that our BC govt is left wing (coalition between NDP and Greens) and is one of the few provinces that did not have a total clamp down (did not shut down non-essential businesses). However, in eastern Canada, both Ontario and Quebec have right wing provincial govts, but they went for the full clamp down. Yet they have the worst records (cases and deaths per pop) in Canada.

My point is that this not about politics, but how you react and manage through this epidemic. I think our govt here in BC just did a much better job. BTW half our population (2.5M) is in the lower mainland where I live. And this is where the majority of cases happened. And yes, Vancouver city is quite densely populated as well, in a very small area downtown. I live in a suburb (45 min from downtown) and it is not densely populated. However, our nursing homes were as bad as Vancouver city (or worse).
I have quite a few problems with that chart, but for the purposes of our discussion here the biggest issue is that it makes the false implication that correlation is the same as causation, and that it presents specific, curated data designed to advance a political agenda, rather than inform readers on a public health issue. Given our current world situation, that's pretty unconscionable. (Speaking to the author of that chart, not to anyone here.)

Beyond that, there are an awful lot of variables that need to be kept in mind, that aren't addressed by charts like that. Population density is definitely one of them, and another is the fact that different locations are at different points along the trajectory curve of the disease. For those and many other reasons, a true, complete picture of this thing isn't going to be possible until after it's largely over.

Personally, I'm lucky to live in one of the most rural states in the union, and one that had the courage to clamp down on large gatherings and long-distance travel before things got too out of hand. Montana now has one of the lowest infection rates in the country, though I'm worried that will change when the travel restrictions end and we get bombarded with out-of-state tourists again. (Fortunately, I'm spending a good part of my summer hanging out in the wilderness backcountry, so hopefully I won't have to worry about this as much as some folks.)
 

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Discussion Starter #20
I have quite a few problems with that chart, but for the purposes of our discussion here the biggest issue is that it makes the false implication that correlation is the same as causation, and that it presents specific, curated data designed to advance a political agenda, rather than inform readers on a public health issue. Given our current world situation, that's pretty unconscionable. (Speaking to the author of that chart, not to anyone here.)

Beyond that, there are an awful lot of variables that need to be kept in mind, that aren't addressed by charts like that. Population density is definitely one of them, and another is the fact that different locations are at different points along the trajectory curve of the disease. For those and many other reasons, a true, complete picture of this thing isn't going to be possible until after it's largely over.

Personally, I'm lucky to live in one of the most rural states in the union, and one that had the courage to clamp down on large gatherings and long-distance travel before things got too out of hand. Montana now has one of the lowest infection rates in the country, though I'm worried that will change when the travel restrictions end and we get bombarded with out-of-state tourists again. (Fortunately, I'm spending a good part of my summer hanging out in the wilderness backcountry, so hopefully I won't have to worry about this as much as some folks.)
Well, I think people are too quick with their correlations on all sides. But I do like stats, and often find them surprising when I just hear the popular wisdom/opinions on the news. There have been so many speculations/studies that have proved to be wrong. So I try to be open minded and will often mention facts and data that are contrary to what most people might be led to believe.

I actually have a very low opinion of the news media (not just what is happening lately) from a long time ago. For them it is all about sensationalism and making news. I like to dig up my own facts and hear it from the horses' mouths instead of letting the media tell me how to think. I was always a rabblerouser right from high school, university (had to be careful with profs though as they would ding you if you didn't agree with them) and right through my career. It actually served me very well, both in business, and personally. So basically I don't believe anything or anyone just on face value without doing my own research. And yes, that goes for cars, too. Which is why I like Subaru's... haha.
 
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